Confirmation Bias... How it affects our tactical decisions on the race course

Due to school work and other sailing engagements I won't be able to attend the moth regatta this weekend in Long Beach. I'm quite bummed about it, but you can't have it all...
Nevertheless I would like to share some thoughts in regards to how we tend to warp our tactical decisions on the race course.
In Business School we have all sorts of communication and leadership classes and I have actually been able to apply quite a few learnings to my own personal sailing. Today I would like to look a bit closer at what the experts call Confirmation Bias.
Experience has shown that it's human nature that once we have taken a certain decision we selectively look for reasons, signs etc, to further justify whatever bogus conclusion we have come up with. The same applies to sailing. I'm sure that all  of you "tacticians" out there have come up with great tactical plans before the start and spent the rest of the race looking for signs that would fall in line with it. Instead you should have probably looked for signs that would negate it.

At this year's Key West Race Week I once again had the pleasure to do tactics on board the Melges 24 "Blu Moon", a program which is run by Franco Rossini from Switzerland and has Flavio Favini on the helm. From a tactical standpoint I actually felt this was one of my best regattas so far. Having just studied the effects of Confirmation Bias in Business School I told my team that during this regatta I would come up with a plan before the start (as pretty much we always do), but would then focus mainly on signs that would contradict whatever I had just come up with. I felt this really helped me to counter effect the confirmation bias and left me more open minded on what was happening during the race.

At the end we finished a VERY close second behind UkaUka racing from Italy, when it came down to the last 100 meters before the finishing line. Nevertheless a great regatta and lots of good new ideas.

So, next time you go racing and make a plan before the start, maybe start focusing on signs (changes in wind strength, clouds, small wind shifts etc) that would negate your grand master plan. This way you might actually notice that your magical plan is about to go down the drain.... Good Luck!